Scenario planning: Techno Motor Veghel's vision for 2025

Being curious about how other companies think about scenario planning and to what extent they are already working on this, I went to talk to Herman Zijerveld, director of our Magento to Exact Customer Techno Motor Veghel (TMV). I chose this organization because they have been around for over 35 years and thus have the necessary experience of "surviving in various eras." Scenarios I presented to Herman Zijerveld included the impact of robotization, mandatory internationalization, online customer contact, ICT and bitcoin as legal tender on his business operations in 2025. As the conversation showed, I found that TMV already has a pretty clear picture about the future and is already quite engaged in scenario planning.

Robotization

Herman Zijerveld is somewhat hesitant when I ask him to what extent his work can be taken over by robots or computers in the future: "I think robots and computers are capable of taking over about 50% of the work in the wholesale trade. We as TMV will have to prepare for this development by focusing on economies of scale. By making the choice to hire more
hiring staff and focusing on sales and product development, the number of employees in our organization can remain at a similar level."

Mandatory internationalization

What if companies are required to operate internationally, is the next question I ask Herman. He says that this is not a problem for his organization, since TMV already operates internationally: "These days, Herman says, the step for organizations to operate internationally is a lot easier, especially if you operate in a niche market like ours. By visiting trade fairs and going to the relevant countries, you can quickly build good relationships. The Magento webshop, which is linked to Exact, also allows us to work more efficiently, including internationally, because the data in one system can be exchanged quickly. This has saved us a lot of time on administration work."

Ageing

Another trend is the aging population. This is an important development for TMV as Herman points out. "Our target group is youthful. We are in a shrinking market, so we keep a close eye on the 'age developments'. It is a very dynamic market and development so constant monitoring is necessary. We are, I expect, moving more and more towards experience with our business. More and more people will start renting our products instead of buying them."

Online customer contact and data

Herman is very adamant when I present him with the scenario that in 2025 all customer contact will take place online. And I ask him what impact that will have on his organization. "That's a utopia, that's not going to happen any time soon.

If it happens, our organization will be well on its way to doing so. Another scenario I present to him is the fact that by 2025 all digital data will have become public, both corporate and personal. I ask him how his organization will deal with this and which data he would use first. Herman: "I would use data from our current customer base first, followed by data from competitors and the target group. This way I can optimally respond to the wishes and needs of the customers. Data that I will never use and would find very unacceptable if it came onto the market are very personal details. Think about people's condition, such as illnesses."

Virtual Reality

I ask Herman the following question, "What will the impact of virtual reality be on your current business operations when it is fully integrated (everything is sold with VR) into the market?" Herman answers that Virtual Reality will also be a godsend for retail. "Customers will then be able to walk through the store virtually. At the moment, however, they still find it too important, too fun and they are used to browsing through a catalog, for example. Digital is becoming more and more popular, take an e-reader as an example. It is expected that companies will offer these Virtual Reality sales services when the time is right. Certain techniques will then have to be offered."

Bitcoin as a means of payment

The Euro has fallen and bitcoin has become the legal tender in 2025. "I did think about this. This move will not have much impact on my business operations so I expect. The scenario of each country getting its own currency again will be of greater influence."

Passenger cars and motorcycles self-driving

A scenario specific to TMV could be that by 2025 all passenger cars and motorcycles would be mandatorily electrically powered and self-driving ("smart"). Herman responds very firmly and convincingly when I ask him how this would affect the current market and his business. "This is never going to happen and apply. We are in the sportbike business. If it becomes mandatory for motorcycles, the whole market falls away. The fun content will be gone. People mainly want the experience so also the
automatic motorcycles will be sold less quickly."

Expectations regarding ICT

At the end of the conversation, expectations in the ICT field are discussed. For example, what does Herman expect from Vicus eBusiness Solutions? "I expect ERP to become much smarter. It will become like a 1-to-1 extension of our customers. I expect trends in our market to be easier to spot as more information becomes available through smarter software. This will enable us to steer more easily, by which I mean better attune our products and services to the wishes of our customers. In this situation there will be great demand for ICT service providers who can do many things under their own management and who have a great deal of expertise in-house. ICT service providers like Vicus will have to continue to manage the whole house, i.e. the projects at customers. With SME remaining the largest sector. Also smaller ICT service providers that are very specialized have, in my opinion, a good chance to 'survive'."

The power of big business in 2025

As already described in the previous blog, privacy, big data and marketing automation are three very big developments and likely scenarios. Also in 2025. Finally, when I ask Herman how much power big companies will have he says the following: "I already see a lot of resistance on privacy and big data. Especially the big companies are going to profit a lot from this. These developments will have less effect on small companies. Smaller companies have to be careful not to be overrun by the big companies."

About Techno Motor Veghel

Techno Motor Veghel (TMV) is a distributor of off-the-road motorcycles and ATV products. For more than 35 years, TMV has had dealers in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and other parts of Europe, from Scandinavia in the north to Iberia in the south. In recent years, the company has expanded its customer base to Eastern Europe and the United States. TMV focuses on B2B, the end users being consumers.